It’s still early in the flu season – so it’s possible that things could still go badly. However, the data out of the southern hemisphere says that all the noise about “swine flu” is pretty much without merit.

The data speak for themselves. While almost 36,000 deaths are attributed to seasonal flu every year in the US alone, as of October 26th, the H1N1 “pandemic strain” was responsible for less than 5,000 deaths worldwide since its emergence last year.

The Australian experience indicates that 29 out of every million people in the population got sick enough from H1N1 to end up in an intensive care unit and 15 per cent of these died. That means that of 29 people who ended up in an intensive care unit (not just a hospitalization), 4 people died. While we’d all prefer zero deaths from any flu season, what is clear here is that death was extremely rare – and most likely for people who already had health issues.

Also note that this low rate of death and ICU hospitalization happened in a country that did not have access to any vaccine for the full duration of their flu season.

What has people freaked out is that the news has continually harped on the fact that young, healthy adults appear to be more susceptible to the virus, in combination with the “pandemic” designation from the World Health Organization.

Another source of fear is that those with chronic health problems may be more likely to develop complications.

People with asthma (and in many cases, also allergies) fall in this higher-risk category. However, if your asthma is coupled with an allergy to egg, you may not be able to receive the vaccine. After all, the H1N1 vaccine is grown in eggs. If your allergy is serious enough, the vaccine could kill you. So, what are you going to do to cope with flu season?

What we have to remember is that the news doesn’t carry information about asthmatic people who have just experienced mild to moderate illness. You are not going to hear about folks who simply got the swine flu, were sick for a few days, and cheerfully returned to work or school, no worse for wear. We hear about the extreme cases and not the “ordinary” cases.

We also have to remember that the term “pandemic” is referring to sustained human to human transmission of this new flu virus. It does not mean that the virus is more likely to kill you.

Finally, we must be aware that the media loves a sensational story. While some healthy young people have tragically died and we may learn some valuable lessons from that, we also should not overreact: after all, the swine flu is less lethal than its seasonal cousin. In fact, the media fixation with the particularly sad deaths of young, healthy children has completely overshadowed the fact that these deaths are aberrations: the data shows that your case of H1N1 is likely to be similar to what you would get if you caught some other seasonal virus.

All this information on H1N1 has largely been ignored both by the media and our governments, generating a level of panic that is unnecessary and stressful for our whole society. Everyone is talking about swine flu. Long line ups and high emotions are both associated with problems with vaccine delivery in Canada.

For those who cannot receive the vaccine due to anaphylaxis and egg allergies, this fear-mongering is unconscionable. These people have been abandoned by a system that offers no other information on how to protect themselves.

Tomorrow, we’ll continue looking at H1N1 and strategies that could help you weather the flu season, whether you decide to get the vaccine or not.